PECAN

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The first estimate of the 2005/06 pecan crop has been announced.  As you know, the Louisiana Pecan Growers Association is the first group to estimate the crop.  Some members of this group decided to leave the association and form a new association known as Pecan Producers of Louisiana.  They released their estimate on Tuesday, June 14^th, at 287 million inshell pounds.  The Louisiana Pecan Growers Association will announce their estimate of the 2005/06 crop later this week.  Both of these groups are estimating the U.S. crop only. 

As you know, the current crop year produced a small off-year crop at 181 million inshell pounds as estimated by the U.S.D.A. in their January, 2005 estimate.  While the first estimate is on the lower side, growing conditions have been advantageous so far and all areas of the country experienced a good crop set.  Looking over the past five long year crops, the US crop has averaged 327 million inshell pounds. 

Below, we have listed the past five long crop years and the variance between the first estimate and the final USDA number for each crop year.

Listed below is a supply/consumption analysis based on the latest information from USDA and the first estimate of the year.  The final crop number for the current crop, 2004/05 crop, will be released by USDA early to mid July.

To date, each producing area is talking of normal growth.  June is the time in the growing cycle where you typically have a drop or abortion of nuts from the tree as the tree rids itself of nuts that are not forming correctly.  At present, the nuts are just husk with no firm kernel inside.  The nuts will continue to grow in size throughout the next several months but the kernel will not begin to form until late August to early September. 

Cold storage holdings through April 30, 2005, total 187 million inshell equivalent pounds.  This compares to 231 last year and 189 two years ago.  Monthly disappearance in cold storage is running similarly to the previous short crop year and if consumption maintains the same path, we would anticipate a carryout as of 10/31/05 of roughly 55 to 65 million inshell equivalent pounds.

We will update you later this week once the second estimate from the Louisiana Growers Association is announced.  Following this estimate, the Texas Growers Association will meet in mid July and will provide the third group estimate of the season.

We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season.

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