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OLD UPDATES UPDATE TO THE TRADE : December 2004 The USDA has announced their second estimate of the 2004 pecan crop at 177.3 million inshell pounds, down 12 million pounds from their first estimate further reflecting weather damage most recently from excessive rains in the southwest. Cold storage holdings for October were released by USDA at 80mm inshell pound equivalent which is lower than anticipated and shows the continuation of consumer demand for pecans and all nuts in general. Listed below is a supply/consumption chart reflecting the latest information received. We are expecting the Industry to import 85 million inshell pounds from Mexico this year. As you can see from the chart, should demand remain at the 2003/04 levels, we will have an extremely short carryout going into the 2005/06 crop. Est. 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 USDA Cold Storage C/O (10-31) 178 108 141 55 80 US Crop Sizes (USDA) 210 339 173 282 177 MX Imports 45 65 65 65 85 Total Supply 433 512 379 402 342 Consumption 325 371 325 322 The damage to the crop in the southeast from four hurricanes was vast causing limited supplies to be brought to market during early fall. The shortage of new crop pecans from the southeast has been a focal point of both local and national news. Harvest east of the Mississippi is virtually complete and rains have hampered harvesting in Texas and Oklahoma. New Mexico is beginning to harvest and Mexico is in full swing. USDA will estimate the crop again in January but by then, most harvesting will be complete and acquired by the shelling industry. We are expecting tight supplies of pecans in general this year with certain sizes in very limited supply. Spot market pricing is above $5.00 (FAS) at present and we expect contract pricing to be strong in light of very high field prices. Contracting should begin during the normal contracting period of January or very late December.
UPDATE TO THE TRADE : 25 October 2004 / USDA Cold Storage Report On Friday, the USDA reported the cold storage holdings for pecans as of 9/30/04. Their report indicates a cold storage holding of 105 million inshell pound equivalent. This reflects a consumption between August 2004 and September 2004 of 41 million inshell pounds. Last year, consumption for this period totaled 24 million and 34 million in 2002. This is a very high drop in the month of September and there could be a correction in that number when the October cold storage is released. However, based on this information, we would have to alter our prediction for the carryout of the 2004 crop at 10-31-04 to 85 to 90 million inshell pound equivalent. Please see an updated prediction of the total supply for the 2004-05 crop below: Est. 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 USDA Cold Storage C/O (10-31) 178 108 141 54 90 US Crop Sizes (USDA) 210 339 173 282 189 MX Imports 45 65 65 65 85 Total Supply 433 512 379 401 364 Consumption 325 371 325 311 Consumption is strong as contract demand has picked up and spot sales to the typical fall markets increases. Small areas of new crop are beginning to be harvested but we are still several weeks away from mainstream harvesting.
UPDATE TO THE TRADE : October 2004 The USDA has announced their first estimate of the 2004 pecan crop at 189.3 million inshell pounds. The National Pecan Shellers Association estimated the crop back in September at 202 million inshell pounds while the Louisiana and Texas estimates ranged from 190 to 200 million inshell pounds. Cold storage holdings for July and August declined as anticipated and we still expect to see a carryout between 100 and 105 million inshell pounds on October 31, 2004. We utilize the October 31st cold storage number as the official carryout number as October is a very large shipping month yet very little new crop inshell will move during this month. Shipments remain strong even with high spot market pricing and consumption is maintaining its current level of movement. Listed below is a supply/consumption chart reflecting the latest information received. We are expecting that the Industry will import 85 million inshell pounds from Mexico this year which will help to keep the overall supply at an adequate level to cover all needs for the 2005 calendar year. Est. 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 USDA Cold Storage C/O (10-31) 178 108 141 54 100 US Crop Sizes (USDA) 210 339 173 282 189 MX Imports 45 65 65 65 85 Total Supply 433 512 379 401 374 Consumption 325 371 325 301 The harvest should begin in the Southestern states in a few weeks. Holiday demand for first new crop availability will be strong as gift packers and other retail users specify only new crop material. The western states will begin their harvest in late November. The next USDA estimate will be released in early December.
UPDATE TO THE TRADE : September 2004 The National Pecan Shellers Association met early this week for their semi-annual meeting. During their meeting, they estimated the crop at 202 million inshell pounds. This estimate is up from the 195 and 190 estimates of the Louisiana Pecan Shellers Association and Texas Pecan Growers Association. While the crop in Georgia was affected by Hurricane Francis, there were feelings that the Georgia crop was larger than first predicted so the damage incurred is not being reflected as a loss in the most recent estimate. Hurricane Ivan has just passed through Alabama and early assessments of damage to the Alabama crop are stated at 50%. Alabama was predicted by the National Pecan Shellers Association to have a 5 million pound crop prior to Hurricane Ivan. Based on the most current estimate, please see potential total supply listed below. Est. 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 USDA Cold Storage C/O (10-31) 178 108 141 54 105 US Crop Sizes (NPSA) 210 339 173 282 202 MX Imports 45 65 65 65 85 Total Supply 433 512 379 401 392 Consumption 325 371 325 296 The next estimate will be the first official estimate of the United States Department of Agriculture and is scheduled for release on October 12, 2004.
UPDATE TO THE TRADE : June 19, 2004 The first estimates of the 2004/05 pecan crop have been announced. As you know, The Louisiana Pecan Growers Association is the first group to estimate the crop. Some members of this group decided to leave the association and form a new association known as Pecan Producers of Louisiana. They released their estimate on Tuesday, June 15th, at 193 million inshell pounds. The Louisiana Pecan Growers Association announced their estimate of the 2004/05 crop today at 195 million inshell pounds. Both of these groups are estimating the U.S. crop only. As you know, the current crop year produced a small on-year crop at 262 million inshell pounds as estimated by the U.S.D.A. in their January, 2004 estimate. Since the on-year was so small, we were all hoping for a better than normal off-year crop set. Unfortunately, it does not appear that this crop will be above average and is more in line with a normal short crop. Looking over the past five year short crop cycles, the average U.S. crop was 190MM. Below, we have listed the past five short crop years and the variance between the first estimate and the final USDA number for each crop year.
The following chart shows the upcoming and past six years total supply versus consumption. While consumption looks to be falling, we believe the USDA final number for the 2003/04 crop will turn out to be higher which will bring the consumption number more in line with true consumption. It is our belief that as of October 31, 2004, we will have a carryout of 100 to 105MM inshell pound equivalent. Looking at this carryout number coupled with the Louisiana Pecan Growers 195 estimate and estimated imports from Mexico of 75MM, we expect to see a total supply of 370 to 380 million inshell pounds. Current market prices have broken the $4.00 barrier and we expect to see most sizes of halves and larger pieces continue to escalate in price as we approach the fall season due to a shortage in these areas. PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated USDA - Louisiana Pecan Growers To date, each producing area is talking of normal growth but we are beginning to hear issues with scab development across the southeast due to higher than normal rainfall. June is the time in the growing cycle where you typically have a drop or abortion of nuts from the tree as the tree rids itself of nuts that are not forming correctly. At present, the nuts are just husk with no firm kernel inside. The nuts will continue to grow in size throughout the next several months but the kernel will not begin to form until late August to early September. Cold storage holdings through April 30, 2004, total 236 million inshell equivalent pounds. This compares to 189 last year and 295 two years ago. The average disappearance in cold storage holdings between May 1 and October 31st over the past 6 years has been 145 million inshell pounds. The May cold storage number will be released on Monday, June 21st. The next estimate will be the Texas Growers Association estimate in mid July. We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season.
UPDATE TO THE TRADE : December 2003 The USDA released their second estimate for the 2003/04 pecan crop at 263.9 million inshell pounds. This is a reduction of 18 million pounds from their October, 2003 estimate. Georgia and Oklahoma are the two states that were most reduced in quantity. Georgia and other south-eastern states experienced excessive fungus damage and poor quality while we believe Oklahoma was over-estimated in prior reports. Listed below is a supply/consumption chart reflecting the latest information received. Please note that we are utilizing the October 31st USDA cold storage number as the carryout number versus the September number. As October is the largest shipping month for pecans and very little harvest of new crop is gathered in October, October provides the most accurate carryout number of the previous year’s crop. Purchases from Mexico have been brisk to-date and we expect the Industry will import 70 million plus pounds from Mexico this year PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated We at Young Pecan are under the belief that the actual size of the crop is closer to the 280 mark and as such the total supply picture estimated above would increase to slightly over 400 million inshell pounds. However, a larger than normal proportion of this crop was consumed during fourth quarter as there was so little carryover to help service the high retail and gift demand we normally see during fourth quarter each year. Since 1990 we have had only two year when the on-year crop was below 300 million pounds. The average on-year crop from 1990 through 2002 totaled 336 million inshell pounds and the average October 31 carryout for the same period totalled 62 million inshell pounds. Consumption averaged 335 million inshell pounds in these on-year periods. The Industry will continue to purchase inshell to service 2004 needs over the next 8 to 10 weeks. We will remain in close contact over the next several weeks as this crop comes to market and we prepare for contracting.
UPDATE TO THE TRADE : U.S.D.A. - 10 October 2003 The first USDA estimate for the 2003/04-pecan crop has been announced today at 281,9 million inshell pounds. With one third less is Georgia the state where we seen the largest decrease. The total estimate is almost 12 % lower than the National Pecan Shellers estimate from September! It comes as a surprise for most handlers. Please find below a table with the Crop report estimates for the 2003 season. It will be filled in each time a crop estimate is published. In Millions Inshell Lbs
We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season.
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : September 2003 The National Pecan Shellers Association met this past week and during their meeting, they estimated the 2003/04 pecan crop. Their estimate of 319.5 million inshell pounds is a reduction from the Texas Pecan Growers estimate of 332 million inshell pounds. Historically the Pecan Shellers Association tends to over estimate the crop so it is interesting that this year, their estimate is actually lower than the highest estimate to date. Some factors that led them into this number would be concern over “scab” in Georgia. Scab is a fungus disease that attacks the nuts on the trees and those nuts will eventually drop without maturing. This has been caused by the excessively wet weather we have had all summer in the Southeast. Equally, there was some concern expressed over the western states and a lack of rainfall that may cause the nuts to be smaller than normal in certain areas. The Seedling crop looks good throughout all producing areas. Listed below are supply and consumption figures for the past seven years. PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated At this time, the kernel within the shell is beginning to form first turning to it’s gel state an on into the final stages of development of the nut kernel. Cold storage holdings through July 31, 2003, total 130 million inshell equivalent pounds. This compares to 247 last year and 194 two years ago. We are estimating today that the carryout will be roughly 60 million inshell pounds. Consumption has picked up since the first of August so it is possible this carryout number may be slightly high. The next estimate will be the first USDA estimate scheduled for October 10, 2003. We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season.
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : July 2003 The Texas Pecan Growers estimated the 2003/04-pecan crop yesterday July 16 at 332 million inshell pounds. It is 5% more than the Louisiana Pecan Growers estimate from June 13, 2003. Please find below a table with the Crop report estimates for the 2003 season. It will be filled in each time a crop estimate is published. In Millions Inshell Lbs
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : June 2003 The Louisiana Growers Association announced their estimate of the 2003/04 pecan crop last Friday at 315 million inshell pounds. This is the first estimate of the upcoming crop and is an estimate of the U.S. crop only. Below, we have listed the past three large crop years and the variance between the first estimate and the final USDA number for each crop year. You can see that the first estimate is underestimated on average by 17.9% or 55 million inshell pounds. If the trend holds true for this large crop, it could be more in line with 370 to 380 million inshell pounds. There is no guarantee which scenario will hold true. Only time will tell. Large Crop Years: 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 Louisiana Growers Estimate 276,5 335,5 306 315 USDA Final Number (July) 338 406 338.5 Variance 61.5 70.5 32.5 To date, each producing area is talking of a good crop set and normal growth through this period.
The above picture of a nut cluster so that you may see the pecan as it appears on the tree today. The picture on the right is the nut cluster, as it appeared the 2nd week of May. In June, you typically have a drop or abortion of nuts from the tree as the tree rids itself of nuts that are not forming correctly. At present, the nuts are just husk with no firm kernel inside. The nuts will continue to grow in size throughout the next several months but the kernel will not begin to form until late August to early September. Cold storage holdings through April 30, 2003, total 189 million inshell equivalent pounds. This compares to 295 last year and 256 two years ago. The average disappearance in cold storage holdings between May 1 and October 31st over the past 6 years has been 142 million inshell pounds. Using this average disappearance as a guide, the estimated carryout would be somewhere between 50 and 70 million inshell pounds. The next estimate will be the Texas Growers Association estimate in mid July. We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season.
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : May 2003 It’s springtime and pecan trees have budded, bloomed and pollinated. The southeast is several weeks ahead of the southwest, which is typical, and reports from both regions are very favorable. Georgia, the largest producing state, has experienced a very good pollination and is expecting a large crop set. The southwest is in the latter stages of pollination and they too are experiencing good pollination. Of course, these are the very first stages of the growing season and it is way too early to predict crop sizes. Weather will play an important role in bringing a good crop set to fruition. Over the next two months the nutlets will grow visible to the naked eye and the first crop estimate, the Louisiana Growers’ estimate, will occur in mid June. This will be our first official estimate and will be followed by the Texas Growers’ estimate in late July. There have been a few reports of an early frost that damaged a few orchards in the west Texas and Mexico areas, but to date, there are no reports of substantial damage. As for the current supply, USDA cold storage holdings for March totaled 199 million inshell equivalent pounds. This compares to 302 last year and 268 in the last short crop year. If you take a five-year average of the drop in cold storage numbers between March and October, you would average a disappearance of 155 million inshell pounds. Based on this, one would expect a carryout number somewhere between 40 and 50 million inshell pound equivalent. The last time we experienced a carryout this low was in October of the shortest crop on record, the 146 million pound crop which left us a carryout figure of 42 million inshell pound equivalent. Shipments remain strong in light of higher price levels and spot inquires are picking up as we leave the doldrum period and enter the more active spring and summer months. The USDA final figure for the 2002-03 crop will be released in July. Listed below are supply and consumption figures for the past seven years. PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : December 2002 The USDA released their second estimate for the 2002/03 pecan crop at 175.7 million inshell pounds. This is a reduction of 26 million inshell pounds from their October 2002 estimate and is a reflection of the shorter harvest and much poorer quality experienced in the southeast and seedling states. Listed below is a supply/consumption chart reflecting the latest information received. Please note that we are utilizing the October 31st USDA cold storage number as the carryout number versus the September number. As October is the largest shipping month for pecans and very little harvest of new crop is gathered in October, October provides the most accurate carryout number of the previous year’s crop. Due to the reduced US crop estimate, it is also likely that Mexican imports will be stronger than usual PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated The harvest in the Southeast has been very late and slow due to excessive rainy weather, which has prevented growers from entering their orchards to collect the nuts. These nuts have remained on the ground in wet conditions long enough to affect the overall quality of the nut causing more rot and less kernel yield. The Southwest is just beginning to harvest and Mexico is active. As the 2002/03 crop is primarily a western crop, the preponderance of the harvest is yet to be purchased by the shellers. The Industry will continue to purchase the harvest as it becomes available and contracting should begin during the normal contracting period in January.
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : October 2002 The USDA has announced their first estimate of the 2002 pecan crop at 201.7 million inshell pounds. This number is slightly higher than the two grower estimates received previously which came in at 191 and 194 million inshell pounds. The National Pecan Shellers Association estimated the crop back in September at 205 million inshell pounds so it is our feeling that our crop will fall somewhere between 200 and 210 million inshell pounds. Cold storage holdings for July and August remained relatively flat; however, we believe we will see larger cold storage disappearance in the September, October periods as demand for fall markets has already increased. While it is difficult today to say what the October carryout will be, we feel it will fall somewhere between 150 and 170 million inshell pounds. Shipments are very strong and with very advantageous contract pricing, consumption is certain to continue to increase throughout the heaviest shipping period, which is fourth quarter. Listed below is a supply/consumption chart reflecting the latest information received. We have had an increase in the kernels coming in from Mexico, which causes us to raise our Mexican import number to 65 million inshell pounds. PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated The harvest should begin in the Southeastern states in very late October to early November. Holiday demand for first new crop availability will be strong as gift packers and other retail users specify only new crop material. The western states will begin their harvest in late November. The next USDA estimate will be released in early December.
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : July 2002 The USDA has announced their final number for the 2001 pecan crop that harvested this past fall. Their final number is 338.5 million inshell pounds. This number is up from their January estimate of 315 million inshell pounds and is more in line with our prediction of the crop size. The Texas Pecan Growers estimated the 2002 pecan crop this past Friday at 194.5 million inshell pounds. Which is an increase of 2.75 million pounds from the Louisiana Growers estimate but is still indicative of the off-bearing characteristic of the crop. Growing conditions remain good. Shown below is a chart indicating potential consumption from the 2001 pecan crop and the estimated total supply for the 2002 crop year. We have based the 2001 crop consumption on a carryout of 145 million inshell pounds which reflects the same disappearance in cold storage from May through October this year that we had last year. It is our belief that the disappearance from May through October of this year will exceed last year’s disappearance, as pricing is so attractive this year. If this is true, the carryout could be reduced to as low as 130 million inshell pounds reflecting the much higher consumption levels we are experiencing today PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated Demand for pecans continues to be strong with certain sizes of halves and pieces becoming physically tight. Spot market prices continue to firm as supplies tighten and we believe they will remain steady as the crop continues to mature on the trees. The next estimate will be the National Pecan Shellers’ estimate in early September. The first USDA estimate for the 2002 crop will be released on Monday, October 7th.
PECAN UPDATE TO THE TRADE : June 2002 The Louisiana Pecan Growers Association released the first estimate of the 2002/2003 pecan crop. Their estimate of 191.75 million inshell pounds is in line with our independent estimate of the crop and is indicative of the off-year bearing cycle. At present, growing conditions remain good although certain areas of the Southeast are experiencing less than normal rainfall. The next estimate will be the Texas Pecan Growers estimate in July. The final number for the 2001 crop will be released by USDA mid-July. The last USDA estimate in January estimated the crop to be 315 million inshell pounds. Listed below is a supply-consumption scenario based on the Louisiana Growers estimate with an estimated October carry-in of 145 million inshell pounds. This carryover figure is based on the cold storage disappearance between March and October of 2001. If we maintain the same disappearance between March and October 2002, the carryover will be roughly 145 million inshell pounds. PECAN SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION (in thousands of in-shell Lbs.)
* Estimated Demand for pecans is strong and could possibly result in increased consumption for the 2001 crop year. Prices have firmed somewhat from contract levels in January and we believe they will remain steady as the crop continues to mature on the trees. We will keep you posted throughout the growing season with the next scheduled update after the Texas Pecan Growers estimate.
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