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UPDATE TO THE TRADE : July 2007 The Texas Pecan Growers Association has released their estimates of the 2007/08 pecan crop. This association has two committees that estimate the crop and provide two opinions of the crop size. Each estimate is listed below and the two estimates together average 324MM inshell pounds. Listed below is a recap of the crop estimates so far. Inshell Pounds Louisiana Pecan Growers 298,000,000 Pecan Producers of Louisiana 282,500,000 Texas Pecan Growers Association Estimate 1 7-12-06 314,000,000 Texas Pecan Growers Association Estimate 2 7-12-06 333,100,000 Cold storage holdings through June 30, 2007 totaled 154MM inshell pound equivalent and disappearance is running close to last year. If disappearance continues at the same rate as last year, we would expect a carryout somewhere around 40 to 50 million inshell pound equivalent. In early July, U.S.D.A. released their final figure for the 2006/07 pecan crop at 206.3MM inshell pounds. Their January estimate pegged the current crop at 189MM inshell pounds so the final number is an increase of 17 million pounds over their January estimate. Below is a supply scenario based on a carryout of 45 million inshell pounds coupled with the Texas Growers estimate average of 324MM inshell pounds. Also listed is the current 2006/07 data so you can compare the current year with the potential for the upcoming crop year.
TX Est. Final 2007/08 2006/07 Avg USDA Carryout (10-31) 45 126.7 U.S. Crop 324 206.3 Mexican Imports (Est) 90 60 Total Supply 459 393 The next estimate will be released by the National Pecan Shellers Association during their September meeting and the first U.S.D.A. estimate will be released in early October. We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season. If you have any questions or wish to discuss this information further, please give me a call + 322 568 00 68. Faithfully yours, Jean Van Cappellen CAPLENCO - BELGIUM Tel + 32 2 568 00 68
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