UPDATE TO THE TRADE  : June 2007

The Louisiana Pecan Growers Association met end week 24 and announced the first estimate of the 2007/08 pecan crop at 298 million inshell pounds.  This crop represents the on-year cycle and early reports indicate a good pollination and crop set in most areas of the country and Mexico.    We are just entering the “June drop” period when unpollinated and otherwise damaged nutlets will abort so in the next several weeks, we will have a better view of the potential crop size.   

Listed below are a couple of charts of interest.  The first is a chart that shows the variance between the first estimate and the final USDA number for each of the past four on-year cycles.  The second is a supply/consumption analysis based on the latest information from USDA and the first estimate of the year.  The crop size for the 2006/07 year is based on the last estimate provided by USDA in January, 2007.  The final official crop size number will be released by USDA in early July.

 

                1999       2001       2003       2005

Louisiana Growers Estimate                       335         306           315          287         

USDA Final (July)                                       406          338          282          280              

Variance to USDA Final                             +71          +32          -33           -07           

 

                                                                      Est         Est

                                                     2002/03    2003/04     2004/05   2005/06   2006/07   2007/08

USDA Cold Storage C/O (10-31)  141         54              80            53             126           45

US Crop Sizes                      173      282          186       280         189       298*

MX Imports                                   83           65              85           85              65           80

Total Supply                                  397          401           351         418             380         423

 Consumption                               343           321           298         292            335

 * This number represents the Louisiana Pecan Growers Estimate.

The next estimates will come from the Pecan Producers of Louisiana which meet June 21^st and 22^nd and the Texas Pecan Growers Association which will meet July 15^th thru 18^th. 

We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season.

If you have any questions or wish to discuss this information further, please give me a call

+ 32 2 568 00 68.

Faithfully yours,

Jean Van Cappellen

CAPLENCO - BELGIUM

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